Source: Finding Finance | Date: February 28, 2026

Investment Thesis

Commodities are entering a major secular bull market driven by structural under-investment, dollar weakness, falling yields, and the AI-driven energy demand surge—comparable to or exceeding the 2000s commodity boom, with investors positioned at "the very beginning" of a multi-year cycle.

Sentiment

BULLISH

Time Horizon

LONG-TERM (1+ years)

Key Takeaways

Jeff Curry (commodities expert) confirms "commodity super cycle alive and accelerating" with all 2020 thesis points stronger today
Oil fundamentally bullish despite "glut narrative" driven by algos—low inventories, backwardation, wide refining margins signal strength
Copper faces structural deficit: need 6 large tier-one deposits annually until 2050 just for baseline demand (haven't achieved this in last 5 years)
Dollar weakness and falling 10-year yields triggering breakouts in emerging markets (Australia, Philippines, South Africa) and commodity currencies (CAD)
Rick Rule warns: expect 20-50% pullbacks within the bull market but "don't get shaken out"—1970s gold saw 50% drop mid-cycle before 7x move

Market Views

Oil: Target $100+ sustained (potentially $250 long-term per Strazza/JC Parets); OPEC+ exports near all-time highs despite seasonally low demand
Silver: Currently $91/oz, "turbocharged gold" with industrial electrification demand—breakout already confirmed
Copper: "Explosive potential" as institutional money enters small market cap; severe supply deficit ahead
Gold: "No end in sight" driven by de-dollarization and debasement trade
Natural gas: Near-term AI energy winner before nuclear scales; "significant upside" summer 2025-2026
US 10-year yield: Breaking down—if it continues, "last generational buying opportunity" for housing/locking low rates
Platinum: Historically cheap vs. silver (lowest ratio since 1940s); potential major outperformance ahead

Assets Discussed

Oil (crude) - BULLISH (breakout imminent, fundamentals strong, measured target $80 then higher)
XLE (Energy Select Sector ETF) - BULLISH (long-term breakout confirmed)
Silver - BULLISH (already broke out, industrial demand tailwind)
Gold - BULLISH (structural de-dollarization trade)
Platinum - BULLISH (undervalued vs. all metals, potential bottom of 45-year ratio)
Copper - BULLISH (secular uptrend, supply deficit crisis)
Natural gas - BULLISH (AI-driven demand, volatility but upside)
Uranium juniors - BULLISH (starting to outperform URN)
CAD/USD, AUD/USD, Emerging market ETFs (EWA, EZA, AFK) - BULLISH (dollar weakness plays)
JX (TSX Venture Index) - BULLISH (double bottom/falling wedge breakout coming)
Homebuilders, Lumber - BULLISH (if yields continue dropping)
BOAT (Global Shipping ETF) - BULLISH (massive base breakout)

Risk Factors

Volatility and sharp pullbacks: Expect 20-50% corrections even within the bull market (per Rick Rule's 1970s analogy)—weak hands will get shaken out
Timing uncertainty: Charts show setups but exact breakout timing unknown; could consolidate further before major moves
Oversupply risk in AI compute: Potential "AI compute glut" (though Jeff Curry notes energy demand stays high regardless)

Notable Quotes

"If the dollar drops, this will be the last generational buying opportunity of a lifetime [for housing/locking in low rates]."
"We haven't even put six large tier-one copper deposits into production in the last five years, let alone every single year for the next 24 years. That's what we're up against with these copper deficits, guys. This is going to be monumental."

TAGS_JSON: ["oil", "silver", "gold", "copper", "uranium", "macro", "dollar", "mining", "energy", "forecast"]

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