Source: Michael Campbell Money Talks | Date: February 28, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Tariffs, Trade, and Canadian Uncertainty

Investment Thesis

The Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling eliminates Trump's ability to improvise tariffs, reducing policy uncertainty but not ending tariff disputes. Trade policy remains chaotic with multiple legal challenges ahead, creating persistent uncertainty that will suppress M&A activity, asset pricing, and business investment despite some procedural guardrails now in place.

Sentiment

BEARISH (on North American trade and business certainty)

Time Horizon

MEDIUM-TERM (3-12 months, focused on USMCA renewal in July 2025)

Key Takeaways

• Supreme Court IEEPA ruling ends presidential tariff improvisation but doesn't eliminate tariffs—Trump shifting to "Plan B" using Section 122 (balance of payments) and Section 301 enforcement
• Trade policy uncertainty (not just tariff rates) is the primary economic drag, suppressing M&A activity, asset pricing, and hiring decisions
• American consumers/importers pay 90-98% of tariff costs (pass-through rate), with inflation effects now hitting as warehoused inventory depletes
• USMCA renewal in July 2025 is critical—Canada remains vulnerable on autos, lumber, and aluminum (Section 232 national security tariffs)
• Republican political support for tariffs cracking (opposition at 65%), creating midterm election vulnerability

Market Views

• Trade policy uncertainty identified as primary suppressant of M&A activity and capital allocation decisions
• Tariff refunds could total billions (thousands of filers already demanding refunds including FedEx, Costco)
• Inflation pressure building in 2025 as tariff pass-through effects materialize with inventory depletion
• USMCA renegotiation timeline: July 2025 is pivotal—failure doesn't kill the deal but extends uncertainty for 10 years under existing terms

Assets Discussed

No specific tickers mentioned. Sectors impacted:

• Canadian autos, lumber, aluminum - bearish (Section 232 tariffs persist, need USMCA concessions)
• US importers/retailers (Costco, FedEx referenced) - bearish (tariff burden, legal costs for refund claims)
• Cross-border M&A - bearish (uncertainty killing dealmaking)

Risk Factors

• Political volatility: Trump's "mood-based" policy shifts remain unpredictable; potential to separate Mexico from Canada in negotiations
• Legal timeline uncertainty: Tariff refund process could take "years to unwind in courts" per DOJ, creating cash flow/accounting complexity
• Congressional wild card: Post-midterm Congress (if Democrats gain ground) may claw back tariff authority or demand trade deal approval rights, adding new procedural hurdles

Notable Quotes

• "It's not just the rates. It's the trade policy uncertainty that ultimately is quashing M&A activity... undermining our ability to price an asset... to hire."
• "Rich countries don't do this [tariffs]... But obviously in 2025, 2026, they do." (Professor Bush lamenting departure from modern trade norms)

Bottom line for investors: Avoid sectors with heavy cross-border trade exposure (autos, materials, retail importers). Policy clarity unlikely before July USMCA negotiations. Tariff refund claims create contingent liabilities for US Treasury and accounting uncertainty for importers. Political winds shifting against tariffs but not fast enough to prevent medium-term economic drag.

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