Source: Finding Finance | Date: February 26, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Finding Finance - Commodities Technical Analysis

Investment Thesis

Oil and energy sectors are forming bullish technical patterns with strong support levels and appear ready for an upward breakout, while precious metals (gold/silver) show concerning distribution patterns after recent selling pressure that may indicate a trend reversal despite short-term bounce attempts.

Sentiment

NEUTRAL (mixed across asset classes: bullish energy/base metals, cautious precious metals)

Time Horizon

MEDIUM-TERM (3-12 months for major moves, though watching short-term patterns)

Key Takeaways

Oil complex (XOP, OIH) sitting on support with bullish falling wedge formations; positioned for breakout
Gold/silver showing bearish engulfing patterns and rising wedges after major selloff - risk of further downside despite recent bounce
Gold/silver mining stocks (GDX, GDXJ) may outperform metals themselves based on XAU/gold ratio at "ridiculously low levels"
Base metals (copper, aluminum, nickel) showing constructive breakout patterns
Treasury yields in continuation patterns suggest higher rates ahead; DXY in potential rising wedge (bearish for dollar)

Market Views

Oil: Expected to break higher from flag pattern; no major reversal candlesticks unlike precious metals
Gold/Silver: Could be forming double tops; may retest recent lows around support zones before establishing final bottom
Mining Equities: Vertical moves in GDX/GDXJ warrant caution for pullback, but long-term ratio setup is "fantastic"
Bonds: TLT could move higher (yields drop), though no panic buying seen yet that typically precedes recessions
Dollar: Rising wedge pattern "generally breaks lower"

Assets Discussed

XOP, OIH (energy ETFs) - BULLISH: On support, bullish patterns, "about to go"
GDX, GDXJ, SILJ (mining equities) - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH: Ratio play compelling but watching for pullback after vertical move
GLD, SLV (precious metals) - NEUTRAL/BEARISH: Big selling pressure, rising wedge risk, needs to clear resistance
Copper, Aluminum, Nickel - BULLISH: Breaking through downward patterns
URA, URNM, UEC (uranium) - BULLISH: Consolidating, "looks good"
Bitcoin, Ethereum - NEUTRAL: Could be bottoming but may chop sideways before potential lower move
Natural Gas, TTF - BULLISH: Falling wedge (bullish formation)

Risk Factors

Precious metals showing classic distribution/reversal patterns (bearish engulfing, rising wedges) that historically precede larger corrections
Vertical moves in mining equities often lead to pullbacks; "rip out of base" patterns frequently consolidate
"Plunge protection team" references suggest skepticism about equity market sustainability; if market conditions changed, crypto/stocks could "suck in" buyers before rolling over

Notable Quotes

"Rookies look at the short-term price movements and then they try to draw conclusions. Trust me on this. I've been hit multiple times on these types of patterns."
"Your big moves generally come from big patterns. Lots of chopping sideways before a breakout. That's where the big energy gets released."
"Rocks before stocks" - indicating preference for hard assets (commodities) over equities in current environment

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