Source: The David Lin Report | Date: February 26, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Jeff Clark on Gold & Commodities

Investment Thesis

Precious metals have not yet experienced true rotation from equities despite strong gains, and the gold/mining stock bull market is more comparable to the 1970s mania than 2011, with significant upside remaining once institutional money flows from overvalued tech stocks into undervalued gold assets.

Sentiment

BULLISH

Time Horizon

LONG-TERM (multi-year cycle still in early-to-mid stages)

Key Takeaways

Gold at $5,000 is still undervalued relative to the NASDAQ—the gold-to-NASDAQ ratio remains near 10-year lows, suggesting wealth rotation has not yet occurred
Gold mining stocks have not broken out relative to gold prices; many ratios are at 2016-2020 levels despite gold's rally
Institutional adoption of gold as a 20% portfolio hedge is accelerating but still in early stages
Miners have strongest balance sheets in history: near-zero net debt, record margins at $3,000+/oz, high cash flow—ideal conditions for M&A wave
Buy-the-crash strategy: Significant market dislocations (like 2008, 2020) present generational entry points

Market Views

Gold floor: $5,000 appears to be new consolidation range, not ceiling; volatility of ±$200/day is the new normal at these price levels
Silver: Expected to outperform gold in percentage terms as bull market matures; 5-year supply deficit continues with falling COMEX/LBMA inventories
Geopolitical catalyst: US-Iran kinetic conflict would send commodities "berserk" with gold/silver/oil surging
Debt crisis: $1.9T deficit (5.8% GDP) and $1T annual interest payments have not yet impacted gold—this is the "endgame" catalyst still ahead
Profit-taking level: When gold becomes overvalued relative to other assets (dramatic ratio reversal from current levels)—"nowhere near that" currently

Assets Discussed

Gold (spot) - BULLISH: Consolidating around $5,000; expected to surge on geopolitical escalation or debt crisis
Silver - BULLISH: Structural deficit, passing gold in % gains during bull legs, industrial/monetary dual demand
Copper - BULLISH: Supply-demand imbalance, data center buildout, insufficient future supply
Uranium - BULLISH: Political/environmental tailwinds, supply shortage vs. growing demand
Gold miners (GDX/GDXJ) - BULLISH: Up 185% (12mo) but still undervalued vs. gold; haven't broken out of multi-year range ratios; M&A wave imminent
Platinum/Palladium - NEUTRAL/AVOID: 90-95% industrial, dependent on economic health vs. monetary appeal
NASDAQ/Tech stocks - BEARISH (implied): Overvalued relative to gold; rotation source for precious metals rally

Risk Factors

Waterfall crash scenario: Total sector wipeout (like 2008/2020) would reset entry points but represents buying opportunity for prepared investors with cash
Management execution risk: Two-thirds of Jeff's sell decisions are due to poor management handling of challenges, not geology failures
Developer timing risk: Pre-production companies enter "boring phase" of permitting (multi-year); best entry is at construction decision (90% chance of 90% gain in 18mo)

Notable Quotes

"You have to go back to the 1970s to find a comparable period to what we have now... This is not 2011. This is the 1970s."

"I love big dips and I cannot lie... If we get another big crash like that, David, I will be a buyer."

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