Source: Miles Franklin | Date: February 25, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Gold & Bitcoin Analysis

Investment Thesis

The global financial system is experiencing a trust crisis, driving central banks and nations to seek neutral settlement layers. Gold is surging due to dollar weaponization and de-dollarization efforts, while Bitcoin represents the long-term evolutionary successor as the world transitions to instant digital settlement over a 50-year timeframe (we're 17 years in).

Sentiment

BULLISH (on both gold and Bitcoin, but for different reasons and timeframes)

Time Horizon

LONG-TERM (1+ years, extending to decades for full Bitcoin thesis)

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's current 45% drawdown from $126k to ~$67k is normal cyclical behavior—previous cycles saw 85% and 77% drops; this is the mildest yet at 46-52%
Gold's recent surge is NOT inflation-driven (it was flat 2020-2024 during peak money printing); it's driven by loss of trust in dollar weaponization and search for neutral settlement
Bitcoin still trades as a risk-on asset correlated with tech/NASDAQ, not yet as a risk-off store of value like gold—institutional adoption hasn't changed this
The 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle remains intact: peaks occur ~18 months post-halving, followed by 12-18 month corrections
Long-term thesis: Bitcoin will evolve through phases—currently transitioning from "store of value" (2020s) to "medium of exchange" (2030-2040) to "unit of account" (post-2050), driven by AI agents, micro-transactions, and the 1.5-2 billion unbanked adults

Market Views

Bitcoin price trajectory: Expects recovery consistent with historical 4-year cycles; volatility is decreasing over time (85% → 77% → 46% drawdowns)
Gold valuation driver: Central bank buying for neutral settlement layer, not inflation hedge; driven by BRICS de-dollarization and parallel financial systems
Macro factor: Dollar weaponization (sanctions, tariffs, Russia asset seizures) is the PRIMARY driver of gold demand, not monetary debasement
Technology catalyst: AI agents and autonomous systems will require instant, permissionless micro-transaction rails that only Bitcoin can provide at scale
Central bank Bitcoin adoption: Early stages (El Salvador, Brazil $1B proposal, Eastern Europe) but directional momentum is key, not current volume

Assets Discussed

Bitcoin (BTC) - BULLISH LONG-TERM: Down 45% from ATH but cyclically normal; 1,400% gain during 2020-2024 vs gold's 0%; institutional ETF inflows at $53B vs predicted $5-15B
Gold (XAU) - BULLISH MEDIUM-TERM: Surging due to trust crisis and central bank accumulation; temporary outperformance vs Bitcoin in current low-liquidity environment
US Dollar (DXY) - BEARISH: Weaponization eroding global trust; sanctions and asset seizures driving de-dollarization
NASDAQ/Tech stocks - Bitcoin remains highly correlated to risk-on tech assets
Lithium/Oil (commodities) - Mentioned as "neutral reserve assets" China is accumulating instead of US Treasuries

Risk Factors

Derivatives leverage: Bitcoin derivatives are "weapons of mass destruction" that caused recent crash; excessive leverage in the system creates boom-bust volatility (though less severe than gold's naked shorting)
Centralization via custody: Majority of new Bitcoin holders access via ETFs (BlackRock custody) rather than self-custody, undermining the original "be your own bank" ethos—vulnerable to government freezes
Adoption timeline risk: 50-year evolutionary thesis requires decades to play out; Bitcoin is only 17 years old and still in early "store of value" phase—medium of exchange won't materialize until 2030-2040

Notable Quotes

"The real reason why I think gold is surging right now is because the world is searching for neutral money. The dollar's become weaponized... We no longer trust the US dollar system."
"When the most money was printed and the highest inflation [2020-2024], gold went nowhere. When debasement actually went down... now [gold's] going up. So maybe gold isn't the debasement trade."
"In order for the world to continue to trade globally... we need a neutral settlement layer. Gold can't really be that because it can't be trusted [tungsten bars, requires escrow]. But the very problem the world is facing right now is a lack of trust."
"AI agents are now doing micro-transactions hundreds and thousands of times... there's nothing in the global monetary system that they can work with other than something like Bitcoin."

Analyst Context: Mark Moss is Chief Bitcoin Strategist at Subsuma, partner at Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, 25+ years investing experience. He owns both Bitcoin and gold, frames them as complementary tools rather than competitors.

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