Source: Gregory Mannarino | Date: February 24, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Gregory Mannarino on Tariffs

Investment Thesis

Tariffs—regardless of what they're called (levies, licensing fees)—are paid at the US border by US importers, not foreign nations, and will directly increase costs for the American economy. This is a structural economic issue, not a political one.

Sentiment

BEARISH (on US economy/consumer)

Time Horizon

SHORT-TERM to MEDIUM-TERM

Key Takeaways

Tariffs are costs imposed at the US border on imports, borne by American businesses and consumers—not foreign governments
Terminology (tariffs vs. levies vs. licensing fees) doesn't change the economic reality of who pays
The framing of tariffs as "punishing other nations" is misleading; the US economy bears the direct cost burden
This is presented as a structural economic issue transcending partisan politics
Mannarino characterizes the tariff narrative as deceptive regarding who actually pays

Market Views

US economy: Expected negative impact from increased import costs
Consumer prices: Implied upward pressure from border costs being passed through
Macro theme: Structural inflationary pressure from tariff policy regardless of political branding
No specific price targets or levels mentioned

Assets Discussed

None specifically mentioned (this is a macro/policy-focused commentary)

Risk Factors

Political polarization may obscure rational economic analysis ("red hats will deny, deflect, defend")
Structural nature of issue means it persists regardless of political narrative
Historical parallels to failed economic policies cited as warning

Notable Quotes

"Trump can call it tariffs, levies, license fees, or anything else. If the cost is imposed at the border on imports, it hits the US economy. Period."

"It's not punishing for Trump is no threat whatsoever towards another nation. He's a threat towards America directly because we're the ones who bear the brunt of this."

Analyst Note: This is a macro economic critique focused on tariff incidence (who bears the cost), not a traditional asset allocation recommendation. The bearish sentiment applies to US economic outlook and purchasing power rather than specific investment vehicles.

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