Source: Maneco64 | Date: February 20, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Maneco64 - Commodities & Geopolitical Turbulence

Investment Thesis

Global deglobalization and geopolitical fragmentation (particularly U.S.-Iran tensions) are creating a paradigm shift toward commodities as stores of value and inflation hedges, mirroring historical periods like the Napoleonic Wars, WWI, and 1970s stagflation where sound money and hard assets outperformed fiat currencies.

Sentiment

BULLISH

Time Horizon

LONG-TERM (1+ years)

Key Takeaways

Dedollarization accelerating: China dumping treasuries, Global South accumulating gold, even UK considering payment system alternatives to Mastercard/Visa
Historical pattern: divided world + geopolitical conflict = commodity outperformance and currency debasement (Napoleonic wars, WWI, 1970s oil crisis)
Technical breakouts: Oil breaking falling wedge, copper at all-time highs, gold >$5,000, silver >$80
Ethiopia emerging as next Western Australia for gold mining - untapped geology, first international project financing deal signals "game on" for sector
Cafe Gold & Copper's Tulu Kapi mine (backed by Ethiopian PM) represents template for development in frontier markets

Market Views

Oil undervalued vs. silver - expects oil to catch up rather than silver correcting down
Gold/Silver continue higher - "lower in fiat currencies" not hitting resistance
Copper near all-time highs - signal of commodity scarcity, not just economic growth
Inflation wave incoming - currency debasement from geopolitical division, not transitory
Trump gave Iran 15-day ultimatum - near-term catalyst for oil/commodities volatility

Assets Discussed

Gold - Bullish (trading >$5,000, central banks/investors accumulating for dedollarization)
Silver - Bullish (>$80, correlated with oil, expects continuation)
Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) - Bullish (breaking falling wedge, undervalued vs. silver, Iran risk premium)
Copper (LME) - Bullish (all-time high consolidation, inflationary signal)
KFI.L (Cafe Gold & Copper) - Bullish (£194M market cap, 183p, Tulu Kapi mine Ethiopia fully funded $340M, production imminent, Chancery Royalty portfolio holding)

Risk Factors

Iran negotiations could defuse near-term geopolitical premium in oil
Frontier market execution risk in Ethiopia despite government backing
Commodity bull thesis depends on continued geopolitical fragmentation - any return to globalization undermines narrative

Notable Quotes

"Globalization is finished and I think dedollarization is the major symptom of that."
"That's going to happen in Ethiopia now that Ethiopia is welcoming it... lots of Tulu Kapis like mushrooms popped up everywhere. That's all happened in like 40 or 50 years [in Australia]. It's the same geology, exactly the same geology, same age rocks."

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