Source: Finding Finance | Date: February 20, 2026

Investment Research Summary

Video: Commodities Update: Technical Analysis: OIL IN BEAST MODE, SOFT COMMODITIES LOOK GOOD
Source: Finding Finance
Analyst: Andy (Finding Value channel)

Investment Thesis

Crude oil is breaking out of key technical resistance levels, signaling the start of a potentially much larger bullish move, while soft commodities (soybeans, wheat, corn) are forming higher highs/lows indicating uptrend reversals. Precious metals show mixed short-term signals despite cheap valuations in mining stocks relative to gold prices.

Sentiment

BULLISH (on crude oil and soft commodities)

Time Horizon

MEDIUM-TERM (3-12 months)

Key Takeaways

Crude oil breaking out of flag pattern resistance at +2.5%, potentially starting a significant longer-term rally
Energy sector showing broad strength: XOP and OIH breaking through neckline resistance levels
Soft commodities turning bullish: soybeans and wheat establishing higher highs/higher lows (uptrend formation), corn sitting on bullish falling wedge
Precious metals (gold, silver, platinum) showing mixed signals with potential short-term downside despite cheap mining stock valuations
Natural gas (UNG) consolidating after volatility spike, presenting a potential entry point

Market Views

Crude Oil: Breaking out of flag pattern; "could be the start of a much larger move in the big longer time frame"
Yields: All treasury yields (2Y, 10Y, 30Y) squeezing into corners, suggesting potential breakout soon with bullish patterns for yields to go higher
Soybeans/Wheat: Both forming higher highs after higher lows, establishing confirmed uptrends
Gold Miners (GDX, GDXJ): Still "very cheap for gold and silver mining companies in relationship to gold" but facing short-term resistance
S&P/NASDAQ: "Looks kind of crappy" with potential for downside, but market "keeps going up somehow"

Assets Discussed

Crude Oil (CL) - Bullish (+2.5%, breaking resistance)
XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration ETF) - Bullish (breaking neckline)
OIH (Oil Services ETF) - Bullish (+1.65%, breaking resistance)
Natural Gas (UNG) - Neutral/Bullish setup (contracting after volatility, potential entry)
Soybeans - Bullish (forming higher highs, uptrend confirmed)
Wheat - Bullish (breaking higher, higher high formation)
Corn - Bullish long-term (sitting on falling wedge support)
Gold (GC) - Neutral/Bearish short-term (potential further downside despite holding)
Silver (SI) - Neutral/Bearish short-term (needs to break recent high)
GDX (Gold Miners) - Neutral (+1.65% but mixed signals, cheap valuation)
GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners) - Neutral (decent candlestick but needs follow-through)
URA/UNM/URG (Uranium) - Bullish (breaking higher, potential start of bigger move)
Lithium (LIT, RMX) - Neutral (consolidating, no major selling pressure)
Bitcoin (BTC) - Neutral (holding, doesn't look dire)
S&P 500 - Bearish bias (poor technical setup)
NASDAQ - Bearish bias (poor technical setup, down 0.3%)

Risk Factors

Short-term technical patterns are "lower probability of success" and can "humble you in a second" — mixed signals across precious metals suggest waiting for confirmation
Potential artificial price manipulation in mining stocks: "if this was a normal market pattern... you'd see a downside move. If we don't see that and this keeps melting higher, this was probably an artificial move"
Equity markets (S&P, NASDAQ) showing bearish technical patterns despite continued upside, creating divergence risk

Notable Quotes

"Crude oil... this looks really encouraging and this could be a start to a much larger move in the big longer time frame"
"It's very cheap for the gold and silver mining companies in relationship to gold" (despite mixed short-term signals)

Analysis Date: 2026-02-20
Disclosure: Technical analysis-focused daily update; channel offers premium research at findinghyenvalue.com

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