Logomark

A Global Monetary Crisis Is Coming and AI Could Make It Worse

Source: Miles Franklin | Date: February 20, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Miles Franklin - A Global Monetary Crisis Is Coming & AI Could Make It Worse

Investment Thesis

A global monetary crisis driven by dollar weaponization and de-dollarization trends will likely accelerate gold's rise to $10,000+ by end of 2026, with AI-triggered market dysfunction potentially amplifying the collapse through algorithmic contagion and synthetic information warfare.

Sentiment

BULLISH (on gold and monetary reset themes)

Time Horizon

MEDIUM-TERM (next 12-18 months for $10K gold target)

Key Takeaways

  • Gold has strong asymmetric risk profile: central bank buying creates floor (~4,000 tons/year flat mine supply), unlimited upside from geopolitical/monetary triggers
  • Each $1,000 increment to $10K becomes mathematically easier (9K→10K = only 11% vs 2K→3K = 50%), creating potential for rapid acceleration in final stages
  • US Treasury gold revaluation to market prices (currently booked at $42.22/oz) has >50% probability under Trump administration, would inject ~$1 trillion into Treasury General Account and signal major psychological shift
  • China's actual gold reserves likely 2-3x reported 2,800 tons when including opaque SAFE holdings; official yuan reserve currency ambitions limited by lack of liquid bond market and capital controls
  • AI + algorithmic trading creates "fallacy of composition" risk: strategies that work individually (sell to cash during panic) become catastrophic at scale when executed simultaneously by automated systems

Market Views

  • Gold price target: $10,000/oz by end of 2026 (from ~$5,100 currently)
  • Acceleration thesis: Path will be 6K→7K→8K with rapid 9K→10K move as percentage gains compress
  • Retail frenzy stage not yet begun: Current buying primarily institutional (central banks, sovereign wealth, ETFs), not retail panic
  • Treasury revaluation mechanics: Legal precedent from Eisenhower era, would be accounting entry marking Fed's gold certificate from $42 to market, crediting Treasury account
  • AI market risk: 95%+ NYSE trading already automated; AI decision-making creates millisecond contagion without human circuit breakers

Assets Discussed

  • Gold (physical) - BULLISH: Primary thesis, structural floor from central bank demand, geopolitical hedge, "everything hedge" not just inflation
  • US Treasury securities - BEARISH (implicit): Weaponization driving diversification, $300B Russian assets frozen/at risk of confiscation
  • Chinese yuan - NEUTRAL: Not viable reserve currency (no bond market, capital controls), but gold settlement layer emerging for BRICS trade
  • Digital assets (implied) - BEARISH: Referenced as vulnerable to rapid disappearance in monetary collapse scenario

Risk Factors

  • Accounting entry psychology: US gold revaluation is purely accounting, doesn't change world market fundamentals (though psychological signal matters)
  • AI deep fake warfare: Scenario of synthetic Fed chairman speech triggering algorithmic cascade; technology already demonstrated, cyber warfare units could exploit
  • Fallacy of composition at scale: What works for individual investor (flight to cash) crashes system when all AI algos execute simultaneously; circuit breakers ineffective against sub-second trading

Notable Quotes

  • "A global monetary crisis is perhaps more likely and perhaps coming sooner... But that could actually happen before an AI collapse, but they could exacerbate each other."
  • "Gold is not the inflation hedge. I call it the everything hedge. When there's uncertainty—wars, inflation or deflation, depression or boom—gold is a very good way to preserve wealth."
  • "We haven't seen the retail frenzy stage... If you get the kind of catalyst... that could flip us into what I call the retail frenzy, and then everything I said would happen, but it would happen faster."

Auto-generated summary.