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Why Silver Supply Cannot Respond to Higher Prices

Source: Kitco NEWS | Date: January 27, 2026


Key Takeaways

  • Silver supply has plateaued at 830-850 million ounces for a decade with major producers guiding lower production for 2026
  • The physical metals market is overtaking the paper trading market for the first time in decades, creating a new pricing paradigm
  • Mining sector requires significantly higher metal prices to justify billion-dollar infrastructure investments for new projects
  • Government support is improving globally, with faster permitting being crucial for industry growth
  • Mining companies are running financial models at much higher metal prices ($3,200 gold, $38 silver) compared to historical assumptions

Market Views

  • Silver hit $112 during interview, stabilizing above $100 (previously predicted $100 silver by 2030)
  • Gold trading above $5,100, establishing new base levels
  • Market still in "inning two" of the cycle with major institutional investors (pension funds, mutual funds) still on sidelines
  • Expects continued M&A activity in the sector due to strong cash generation

Assets Discussed

  • First Majestic Silver (AG) - Primary silver producer with own mint, generating exceptional cash flow
  • First Mining Gold - Junior gold company with two development projects in Quebec and Ontario, targeting 250-350k oz/year production each
  • Discovery Silver - Conference presenter/sponsor
  • Physical silver and gold markets vs. paper trading

Notable Quotes

  • "Without silver, nothing works. Copper's highway, silver's the Autobahn" - on silver's strategic importance
  • "We're going into a new pricing paradigm. We're not going to go back to the old pricing that we're all used to over the last 20, 30 years" - on sustained higher metal prices

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